his wife ellen schuman, in endowment business. best performing last year:

'never pay fees' (unless managers money is in and in a big way [dependent on net-worth]). you want the pilot on the plane.

key takeaways:

demography matters. great challanges for phase 4,5 countries. (but better than phase 1). huge policy consequences.

human development can be viewed as increase of available talent pool

current trend: destruction of historical cultures. languages: very rapid urbanization.

2 forms of religion. chronic and acute. acute we kill each other over

__________________________

angus madison premiere quantifying economist

first volcano in western countries in 1870. countires where christianty took over indigneous people?

hans roslings - the best stats you ever saw. 2 ted talks

www.gapminder.org

must see - a moving graph of gdp/capita development vs longevity thru time

________________________

world economic transition

1. upto 1800 - many children, many death, short lifespan. enough children to keep enough survivors. nearly uniform life lived in material misery. number of people who are able to learn (1%). recruitment of world talent was infeasible from biological point of view.

2. death rates fall. different times at different places. in europe, 1800. rapid change in death rate and same birth rate. infant mortality. infant mortality rate drop: clean water and public sewage, food, infectious disease is under-control. cities.prenatal nutrition a crucial predictor.

so clean water (in,out) available to mass populations in urban centers. huge growth in popluation

3. birth rates fall

4. equilibrium again at another point. long lives and human development

5. japan and east asian rich countries and western european ones (italy, germany poland russia). US (except for immigration [black br down, hispanic still high]). huge consequences.

china and ireland in sweet spot right now, but will age fast in 20 years. ireland (laps of faith in irish catholic church - all of a sudden use of birth rates). dependency ratio - people of working age vs total population. officially 15-65/total. can argue about increasing top end.

Urbanism

america:

1850-1920. trains, immigration, industrialization, large labor pools.

in new haven, take a look at grand ave, fair haven and hispanic revitalization of ex italian neighborhoods.

equador has a consulate in new haven.

catholic churc is vey succesful because of great mangement. note its supra-state structure and ability to make exceptions to territorial parishism. e.g. italian church vs irish church in new haven.

lorcio italian restaurant best italianin new haven, ct

2 forms of religion. chronic and acute. acute we kill each other over. tony blair thinks differently. he is acute.

see william james, wrote influential books on the young science of psychology, educational psychology, psychology of religious experience and mysticism, and the philosophy of pragmatism

______________

principle agency theory or agent dilemma.

sweetheartning. company in ct, builds sw systems to detect it

30% of cashiers do it. hard to detect it. giving benefits to shoppers. e.g. not scanning (non-)purchased items.

principle agency theory. ownership (principle) vs employees (agent). interests are different. problem when not performance based. employee has more information than 'shop'. asymmetrical information. e.g. extremely unlucky dealers in casinos.

current economic crisis can be attributed to PAT or accountability problem. mis-alignment of incentives.

sub prime morgages vs redlining post homeowners act of 1934.

mortgage loan officers were incentivized by volume. no evaluation or measurements. fee basis on volume leads to problems.

simplicity - complicated structures create measurement problems

____________________

US elections:

US has no significant left-wing party. populism is getting out of hand and will be difficult to manage.

Palin winking at the camera during a debate

disconnect about much of the country and the elite institutions.

E Roon Kang is an MFA candidate in the Yale graphic design program. He's got some really interesting and smart work up on his site. But what I love best of all is how his site flows. The work is displayed as a background grid that scrolls when you select the projects and image.

game of bids

key takeaways:

green means a lot of costs now and maybe some saving later

interesting idea of JV with govt, get tax break. may take a while to lobby

presentation matters. in fact it overwhelms. it is crucial. everyone was really unclear on price. offers were complex

architect is the last to get paid, if at all

there is always a government official who will do everything they can to show you that they know better

two sets of books, internal for investors and 'public' as there is a disconnect. 10% is low for investors and high for public officials

be more conservative: one thing goes wrong, and you will lose money

________________________

city will not give you breaks for being green, but will require you to be in order to get permit

most projects counted on

• some break in zoning.
• or section 42 for low-income housing
• priced upside as if done deal while it is conditional

Why It’s Hard to Copy Harvard and Yale

For advisors seeking to emulate the “endowment model” of asset allocation and expecting results similar to Harvard’s and Yale’s hefty returns, a new study, Secrets of the Academy: The Drivers of University Endowment Success, may be humbling.

The study, by Harvard Business School professor Josh Lerner and MIT professors Antoinette Schoar and Jialan Wang, documents the impressive returns of endowments. But the study also shows their performance advantage cannot be directly attributed to asset allocation or specifically to their use of alternative asset classes, such as private equity and hedge funds. Instead, endowments’ superior performance is more closely tied to factors that advisors will find much harder to emulate, such as endowment size and admissions selectivity.

Preiously at WANW

Over past year, Yale fund up 4.5%; Harvard fund up 8%

A few thoughts (by Nicola) from conversation on development:

Definitions of development: Human Development concept focuses on enlarging people's choices.
3 essential capabilities:

- to lead long and healthy lives;

- to be knowledgeable;

- to have a decent standard of living.

If these basic capabilities are not achieved, many choices are simply not available and many opportunities remain inaccessible.

Human development goes further to emphasize choice - from political economic and social opportunities for being creative and productive to
enjoying self-respect, empowerment and a sense of belonging to a community. Cultural liberty a vital part:  being able to choose one's identity is
important in leading a full life.

Goal of human development = human freedom - freedom  to exercise choice and participate in decision-making.

Aristotle: "Wealth is evidently not the good we are seeking, for it is merely useful for the sake of something else."

Has progress been made?

YES ... Looked at over a 25-30 year span, remarkable progress: The number of
people living in extreme poverty on less than $1 a day fell by about 400
million. Many more children, particularly girls, complete primary school.
Illiteracy rates fell by half. Life expectancy rose by nearly 15 years, on
average, over a 40 year period. Some diseases such as polio were almost
eliminated.

BUT not enough ...
PROGRESS and                                                          DOWNSIDE

130 million people lifted out of extreme poverty  2.5 billion still live on less than $2 a day;

3 million fewer child deaths a year                              10 million preventable child deaths every year

30 million more children in school                              115 million children still out of school

1.2 billion people gained access to clean water          More than one billion people still have no access to safe water

*       Most recent projections anticipate the proportion of people living
in extreme poverty will fall from 29% 1990 to 10% 2015. However, that masks
significant regional variations - huge progress in large Asian countries
lifts the global numbers but masks the fact that Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)
lags behind.  I.e. There has been strong- but regionally uneven-progress
toward reducing overall poverty.

*       Education: Global target - all boys and girls complete primary
schooling by 2015.  Significant progress in literacy since 1990. In East
Asia and the Pacific, Europe and Central Asia, and Latin America, primary
school completion and literacy rates are close to 100%.  Significant
progress in the Middle East and North Africa and South Asia. SSA Africa is
off track for primary school completion for both boys and girls; South East
Asia is on track for girls' completion of schooling but not for boys. I.e.
There is good progress, but again it is uneven: crises such as the 2005
earthquake in Pakistan opened up new opportunities for schooling of girls in
affected regions.

*       Access to clean drinking water and basic sanitation: key to
environmental sustainability and a key indicator for human development.
Over 1 billion individuals lack access to safe drinking water and 2.5
billion individuals lack access to basic sanitation.  Improvements in these
two areas could help to reduce dramatically the burden of disease,
particularly diarrhea, which contributes to approximately 1.8 million deaths
annually. The growing urbanization exacerbates the problem.

*       Climate change: already starting to affect some of the poorest and
most vulnerable communities around the world - > natural disasters, -
already undermining poverty reduction efforts.

*       Important gaps remain in delivering on global commitments undertaken
as part of the Millennium Development Goals, in the areas of aid, trade,
debt relief, and access to new technologies and to affordable essential
medicines. See the UN MDG Gap Task Force report
http://www.un.org/esa/policy/mdggap/mdg8report_engw.pdf

For those interested in measurement issues,

the World Bank just revised its measurement of poverty. Its new estimates indicate 1.4 billion people in the developing world (one in four) were living on less than US$1.25 a day in 2005, down from 1.9 billion (one in two) in 1981:

poverty has been more widespread than previously estimated, but also there has been strong-if regionally uneven-progress toward reducing overall poverty. Note most dramatically East Asia (drop from 80 to < 20% in poverty rate).

click here fro UN report

]]> http://adisababa.wordpress.com/?p=483 Mon, 06 Oct 2008 18:01:14 +0000 adisababa http://adisababa.el.wordpress.com/2008/10/06/there-is-no-truth/ value conflict and negotiation

key takeaways:

there is not truth. just useful things

in negotiations, start with an outrageous price and imply flexibility. this is not giving a range. people want to see an 'end' in sight. be nice.

'if you give me x, done deal'  is very powerful.

good deals are some times not good enough. do a few great deals.

_________________________

richard rorty a pragmatist. 'there is not truth' and much more insight

linda babcock - here oct 30th 4 pm. wrote a book: women don't ask: negotiations and the gender divide

click here for a video

___________________________

on negotiations:

don't be overconfident, but ask for a lot. imply flexibility and be nice!

warn, don't threaten

treat everything as if it was a tactic.

test for validity

'how did you arrive at this offer?'

make several offers simultaneously

Host: Stuart Gottlieb, Director of Policy Studies

Presenter: Tamar Meisels, Tel Aviv University

Hague Convention 1907 sets out the framework for legal warfare

Terrorism:- "A continuation of politics through other means"

A liberal cannot accept that terrorism is acceptable, ever, to achieve political goals. Against humanist view that cannot utilise other people for objective that they do not share and have no say in.

Terrorism - civilian targets to instill fear
Political assassination - political targets
Guerrilla warfare - combatant targets

Is democracy bad in relation to terrorism?  Terrorists are free riders on the moral restraints, rule of law etc of a democracy: they can rely on the fact that the state/military will not respond in equal kind/force, if it did, it would anihilate the terrorists quickly because of unequal capacity.   Don't pay your taxes but enjoy the benefits that everyone else does. Don't respect the ROL but benefit from its existence and the moral restraint of that society and state.  Abusing the freedoms of that society.

They all have options: political assassination, guerrilla warfare, negotiating table.

Erica Chenoweth, Wesleyan University, Discussant

Two by two matrix:
- Intended/unintended deaths of civilians
- Anticipated/unanticipated deaths of civilians

*Terrorism - intended and anticipated
*Collateral - unintended but anticipated
*Accident - unanticipated and unintended

Spectrum

Can terrorism be justified against totalitarian regimes deploying violence against their own civilians? Flip side of the Free rider argument [if terrorism is wrong because the state cannot and does not use those means, what happens and what is legitimate against a state that does?]

Policy challenges:
Principal agent problem - who takes responsibility, can we only manage to define action categories but not group categories, is it the terrorist actors or the terrorist groups who are responsible?

Huge question in the US - who are the terrorists, should it be treated as criminality or warfare?  (Patriot Act).  Who can you target with criminal justice: individuals, not groups.  [Gavin - In the UK can only try the individual, so if the leaders have not themselves carried out a violent act or cannot be very closely linked to you, you don't have the means to try them.]

"Western" standards of - "Moral" justifications - Targeting civilians - link to "moral justification" - religious association

Est. 7% of terrorist groups have achieved their aims - happens as a substitution for mass support. Can legitimize through the violence cycle with the "enemy" e.g. FLN.

Difference between limited vs maximalist violence - some have aims for territorial claims, others to wipe another group out

Hamas - where is it on the spectrum?

"Accountability" of the terrorists - ? According to international law are not meant to be fighting so irrelevant.  How can you hold them to account and to whom?

Hiroshima - In the above terms, it was terrorism.

Al-Quaeda declared war - US let them even though not a state [in my view, one of the singlest most fundamental mistakes in the fight against terror - legitimized something as  a war ("legal" - holy war) vs criminal acts.

first, i thought about the fact that everyone wants to come to yale instead of retirement.

next, it is interesting that it is a fixed-term contract. perhaps we should do the same with CEOs and with ourselves in the VC industry. otherwise, we give a false illusion of 'forever' resulting in an expected but undisclosed golden parachute. i think there is a lot of power in fixed term deals. when it is over, if both sides want to, you can always extend. i believe this alleviated complacency that comes with taking relationhsips for granted. would you be willing to have your marriage as a 10-year contract? worth a separate blog.

my biggest takeaway from blair

Lead and Listen

america is not doing that.

the ability to listen and not think too highly of yourself comes with many great leaders.

it is part of an important quality by which i try to measure people: 'do you know what you do not know?'

he came here at age 23 and within 20 years became presidnet.

he claims helping runing a campaign thought him a lot. could be a fun experience.

some thoughts:

turn good intentions into positive changes

what people want from you:

• you care about them
• you respect them
• you want their children to live

advice to a young man:

be happy, life is short:

happy has two aspects: help others, and try to do what you like and you are good at.

so there is a catch, good and happy go together.

evidence argument policy and law are 4 essential pillars of government. need to understand this better

great arguments are circular

while listening to him, absorbing his charisma and poise, intelligence and analytic abilities, i could not help but think how he got involved with Monica Lewinsky

even great people are human, not perfect.

what was it about her? what point in his soul was she able to touch?

Fish?

Applying modern engineering design tools to one of the basic units of life, they [researchers at Yale University and the National Institute of Standards and Technology] argue that artificial cells could be built that not only replicate the electrical behavior of electric eel cells but in fact improve on them. Artificial versions of the eel’s electricity generating cells could be developed as a power source for medical implants and other tiny devices, they say.

It seems electric eels have special cells called electrocytes that can generate electric potentials of up to 600 volts. The article goes on to say that

LaVan and partner Jian Xu developed a complex numerical model to represent the conversion of ion concentrations to electrical impulses and tested it against previously published data on electrocytes and nerve cells to verify its accuracy. Then they considered how to optimize the system to maximize power output by changing the overall mix of channel types.

A friend of mine from high school, is now studying in Japan. I think she is a scholar there. She’s very lucky to get a higher education in one of the most competitive countries in the world. You see, it’s not hard to envy her. Sometimes I wonder how it’s like to study in a global university, where facilities are the most modern, faculty is top notch, and the environment is most conducive to learning. Sadly, we don’t and I doubt if we will have - even in the next 100 years - universities like Harvard or Yale. Even in Asia alone, we are lagging behind our counterparts. And unless the government wakes up and makes education its number one priority, we’ll keep lagging behind. Today, other Asian countries are pouring resources to homegrown schools in a bid to prevent brain drain. China is planning to spend a portion of its annual GDP (that is higher than Europe’s or US’) on higher education. Earlier last year, Malaysia announced that by 2010, they will become an international education hub with 100,000 foreign students. India plans to create Vedanta University which they claim will raise standards throughout Asia with 100,000 students and 40,000 faculty.

If you remember, last year's THES rankings showed that 4 institutions from the Philippines (University of the Philippines, La Salle, Ateneo and UST) made it to the top 300. Yes, it’s something to be proud of but it’s not something to be complacent with. While other Asian countries strive to have a cutting-edge global educational system, the Philippines is still yet to make education a top concern.

The leaves are starting to change colors and there's a chill in the air. What's one thing to look forward to with the turn of the seasons? Another set of awesome Yale University Art Gallery covers by some of the most creative and interesting designers and graphic artists around the world. This Fall, international design super-center Hort lent their tremendous talents to creating a unique still life that mirrors and subverts traditional Autumnal displays. It's an excellent addition to the Art Gallery Calendar Cover series!

The Robot is back and David Duchovny might need an ice pack just like his character Hank Moody did in the Season Two opener "Slip of the Tongue."

A human must work very hard to “make” the Official List of Human Egomaniacs, but David Duchovny managed to pull off what was deemed as the near impossible and established himself as one of the most self-absorbed and egomaniacal actors of his generation...Californication is an unusually ego-driven piece of work even by Hollywood standards.  Read the full review here.

author Evan W. Cornog, PhD. dean, Columbia school of Journalism and was press secratery

He is the author of, The Power and the Story: How the Crafted Presidential Narrative has Determined Political Success from George Washington to George W. Bush (2004); Hats in the Ring: An Illustrated History of American Presidential Campaigns [with Richard Whelan] (2000); The Birth of Empire: DeWitt Clinton and the American Experience, 1769-1828 (1998)

key takeaways:

it seems people need to hear a good story

we are in the age of soundbites which are powerful in memory.

e.g "John Kennedy was a friend of mine".

political campaigns are not about debates or opinions, but a battle of stories, crafting images and reputation.

journalism is losing its value-add. no longer more of a point of view or predicting the future.

humor is very powerful, devastating.

_______________

in political candidacy, it seems to matter less if the story is true, you need a powerful personal narrative.

think how many 'heros' in our lives, including sports teams actually write a story.

it is tough to change a story, but it is possible (red sox).

we are now seeing the end of the free-market reagan narrative. now, regulation is american motherhood like apple pie. democrats are out of a narrative for a long time. roosevelt built it, it lost touch with lack of inclusion of afro-americans since the 60s, and now the democratic party is coming up with a new story

the press has a strong role here. see jefferson comments.

_______________

it seems this is more american than rest of the world, but difference is decreasing.

why? party system is loosing power vs candidate. age of celebirty

the post debate analysis is just as important as the debate.

you tube is powerful in this reconciliation. that is hard to over-turn

soundbites

A sound bite is an audiolinguistic and social communications phenomenon whose nature was recognized in the late 20th century, helped by people such as Marshall McLuhan. It is characterized by a short phrase or sentence that deftly captures the essence of what the speaker is trying to say. Such key moments in dialogue (or monologue) stand out better in the audience's memory and thus become the "taste" that best represents the entire "meal" of the larger message or conversation. Sound bites are a natural consequence of people placing ever greater emphasis on summarizing ever-increasing amounts of information in their lives.

Yale E360, one of my favorite go to sites, has a very interesting article about offsets.

I know we all hear about offsets, and wonder... what are they? how do they help? do they really help?

Many people have criticized offsets. A quote from the article explains why... "The standard trope is that it’s like the old practice of buying indulgences from the Catholic Church: You get to commit environmental sin — driving your SUV or living in your McMansion — and still sit at the right hand of God."

This article shows how offsets can be of value, for example... "Offsets make sense because they provide a market-based approach for finding and testing global-warming remedies."

Check out the article HERE and learn more about offsets and if it is a good decision for you!

key takeaways:

the aid business is an industry. complete value chain. lobbyists, consultants, bureaucrats, ... and it will fight to maintain itself. expect more of the same.

agricultural subsidies in japan, eu, us works in the same way with over representation in political systems. think US senate.

many donors do not want the bottom line. look what they look for. a photo with a celeb, a dinner with hi-society?.

who are NGO accountable to. usually people on the outside. this will effect how an NGO function

i am left with what i came in with. common business ideas are not present:

• bottom up over top down. 'start with the customer'.
• effectiveness, % overhead, 'lean and mean'.
• agree on what you measure, and 'measure and analyze'.
• accountability. 'who is in charge'.

what is very present

politics and 'holding on'. stability even in really bad governments. maintain the current.

e.g. aid in africa during cold war. anything so that it does not become communist

change?

• increase transparency, despite resistance. measurements and results have attribution issues which can hurt colloboration

• china and its aid policy based on concessionary loans competing for natural resources especially in africa. like american aid in the 50s. big projects. big companies. CNOOC Chinese off shore petrol company.  see a paper 'the side principle'

interesting organizations:

• DAC- third party for measurements. chaina is not a member of dac. promoting transparency

• MCC US common entity for foreign aid

look kaplan at harvard, linda bilmes, balanced scorecard for NGOs.

mckinsey nonprofit. paper on motivation of donors. similar to cars. it is not fuel effeciency per $

_________________

theory is that there are 7 deadly sins in the structure of develpoment aid

1. impatience (with institution building)
2. envy (collusion and coordination failure)
3. ignorance (failure to evaluate)
4. Pride (failure to exit [sunk cost, with notification])
5. Sloth (pretending participation is sufficient for ownership)
6. Greed (unreliable as well as stingy transfers)
7. Foolishness (underfunding of global and regional public goods)

_________________

opposition party was spending more time with 'donor' community, then with own constituents. the 'stage' was not internal politics

registration was very low. reflection? little hope?

is aid effective? not really, but can manipulate the little data that exists

why is there not more effect?

game theory:

someone in the host country wants aid. sets political system to get it (guess what, and maintain it)

there are providing organizations, and different implementation organizations (ofter, foreign) with local implementation partners, finally recepients

who do you think aid is helping?

so lack of accountability, measure and monitor, and reporting. a very broken and corrupt system. and breakdown in motivations along the way. very relevant construct to VCs.

in 'donor' countries, 'how many votes will i be getting for doing this?' vs agricultural subsidies

if the above is a vertical model, you can expand it horizontally along the country axis. there are horizontal politics as well.

motivation and politics of certain 'donor' aid programs are complex. e.g. food aid, reduce excess capacity, raise prices for farmers.

woody allen jokes from 'annie hall' which are apropo

about giving foreign aid:
Alvy Singer: [addressing the camera] There's an old joke - um... two elderly women are at a Catskill mountain resort, and one of 'em says, "Boy, the food at this place is really terrible." The other one says, "Yeah, I know; and such small portions."

about getting it:

person: doctor, my brother thinks he is a chicken

doctor: bring him in

person: oh, no, we need the eggs

___________________

key takeaways:

do not always trust your gut, although it is a great feeling to do so

trust someone else's gut?

whatever you will look for, you will find it. make sure you look for evidence.

find out what you want to be true, and test the opposite

moral dumbfounding. evidence (haidt) : our gut makes ethical or moral decisions, then we justify it

________________________

do trust it when:

• your gut has subconscious access to information
• your gut has been there before and got clear feedback
• your decision is close or trivial, but

check, is it really close?

bayes helps here because we tend to think things are close when they really are not

• no time for anything else
• when it is about how you feel, but

moods are a big factor in recall and affect decisions. so beware

and check your gut during different modes

Bayes rule:

how you should change your existing beliefs in the light of new evidence?

Mathematically, Bayes' rule states

                 likelihood * prior
posterior = ------------------------------
          marginal likelihood or normalizing factor

______________________

wilson uva article suggests that choosing a poster based on gut, vs based on logic, some time later satisfaction is higher if you choose because of gut

carter racing case (dispute resolution research center)

you are a racing team, an engineer feels something is wrong, has to do with temperature.

do you trust his gut?

moral dumbfounding

we have an ethical knee jerk

case of safe sex amongst brother and sister

people decide it is wrong, but logically can not support it

moral nihilism

the 4 questions of ethics and suggest moral relativism. wiki

1. non-cognitivism. there are, in fact, no moral facts (van Roojen, 2004). But if moral statements cannot be true, and if one cannot know something that is not true, non-cognitivism implies that moral knowledge is impossible (Garner 1967, 219-220).
2. what is the test for right or wrong
3. even if there are right and wrong, why should i care (social norms)
4. what are the right and wrong things

business ethics

it is hard to take personal ethics into business

tool: test your intuition with unnatural thought 'violinist case'

you go to a concert. you wake up in a hospital. you have been operated. you find out your are the support system of the violinist. do you want to disconnect? if you do he dies. do you have to stay in the hospital to keep him alive? this is exactly an abortion case after rape. but people come up with different answers.

book: the mind of the ceo

click here to read review

are we going thru inflation, deflation, stagflation? for how long?

EMERGING markets. 2000 75% of gdp was in emerging markets. in 2050 25%.

expansion will occur in 'new countries' = non OECD, and new groups within those countires

CSR is big, especially for young employees.

CEOs see their role as one that overcomes and eliminates the barriers within their organizations. but they are global leaders. statesmen who deal with multiple governements and the environment.

role of CEO changes. it is too big for one person in a global company.

delegation is a key managerial task

CEOs share:

• energy
• surround yourself with great people
• execution. whatever you do, do well

some good qualities for cross-sector

• measure
• know what you do not know
• what is success, know it in your mind, define it, make it known.
• ability to assess 'what is the problem' in complex scenarios
• listen. people well tell you a lot of stuff. 'bury the lede'

markets. open air ones. such a vital sense of community and interactions. what happened to them? in the US they are history.

in the US markets gave way to department stores and shopping centers.

key takeaways:

need a destination. anchor. keys include transportation, time, flow-width, rain?

flow, interactions,

need: an urban shopping place. e.g. shaker square. willing to give up air conditioning? (recreated street with parking below?)

20 minute parking! on street parking

leave place for other market needs to develop around.

6 keys to success: location, image, financing, time(season's, late night,) entrepreneurship

_____________________

so, from a fabric of individuals and locally grown to chains and all-in-one of department stores

department stores chase people, which means going to the suburbs.

what are the origin of department stores. could be france. why are they so popular?

department stores innovated:

• Goods were sold at fixed prices,
• with guarantees allowing exchanges and refunds
• home deliveries

remember that when department stores start, together with arcades, they help get customer off the street. no more manure, which was a big problem in large cities.

shopping center was invented in KC by nichols and popularized convenient transportation:

again, key is motor vehicles.

getting goods to the stores and customers. customers save time? can carry goods easily. can shop less frequently. give up local and fresh.

stages:

community, neighborhood, regional

in development, need to segment market along time and income.

victor gruen was king of shopping centers. his first mall was southdale in MN

Southdale was meant as the kernel of a full-fledged community. The mall was commercially successful, but the original design was never fully-realized, as the intended apartment buildings, schools, medical facilities, park and lake were not built.

hudson's in detroit was 2nd largest department store. it was a shopping center pioneer. northland.

bennet. shopping centre as a frame for interaction between customer and merchandise. size matters. got to create a comfortable feeling for customer. think of sense of time

shopping arcades vs malls

why did arcades lose it? size? they started too early. size of shops. in providence, RI can not rent third floor. no elevators. flow more difficult? think of milan duomo gallaria Galleria Vittorio Emanuele II in Milan, Italy. in late 19th century they did become poplular. fire codes changed it again. clevleand, moscow, london, milan.

malls

air conditioned gallaria

Mix use

lately mix uses. residential, offices, hotels. alos, kiosks enter the scene

think water tower place, chicago 1975 or time warner on columbus circle. concert hall and public transport included.

add entertainment

urban marketplace

a new retailing form, urban marketplace.

ben thompson. re-invented the push cart. looking for interactions and action.

good sales per sq foot. department stores could not fit in quincy market.

became tourist destination. ghirardelli's square in sf

late 80's

new forms of retails. big box retailers. power centers. value retailers.

entertainment based

urban shopping centre

look at easton in columbus OH. a whole community. public square. forum, fountain.

history of development: evolution or exploitation?

franco: progress is a myth. if you want to live in that myth, that is ok. how do we structure humanity? there is a bottom line and it is treatment of earth. think in circles

dapo: development is dignityty

the need for new world institution. move the UN from US.

in the west: civilization, progress, great chain of being, modernization

is international trade good for all? how much government intervention is good

key takeaways:

think circle not upward sloping line

how is development defined? just economic terms? culture matters

individual responsibility as a success factor for fighting poverty. social fabric and adaptations to it

poverty is relative, to your neighbor to your neighbor country

in some peoples there is no notion of progress, only a notion evolution. it is circular and has to do with giving back to mother earth. they prefer no competition, retribution. we are inside a tale.

rural vs urban. it seems that with economic indicators people in urban areas are doing well. over time?

is culture just a coat that you take off when you want something warmer?

summary and terms:

dependency theory (andre gunder frank, samir amin, walter rodney, immanuel wallerstein):

all societies are part of one world capitalist system which benefits the core by appropriating the surplus value produced by the periphery. international trade benefits one side and exploits the other

marxist evolutionary thinking

primitive communism to to feudalism to capitalism to socialism. feudal societies are poor because they are still trapped in feudal relations of production. socialists societies bring an end to capitalist exploitation.

world-system (wallerstein)

there are no feudal societies anymore, and not yet truly socialist societies, because all societies are still in one integrated global capitalist world-system

vicious cycle of poverty and widening gap (bauer)

there is no exploitation because most countries and most people are getting wealthier all the time. international trade is good for everybody.

chaundry

international trade may be good, but only if the government plays its part by promoting health and education, nurturing new industries, and regulating markets. by forcing governments to shrink, the World Bank and IMF have actually made conditions worse for capitalism, not better

tucker

the idea of development and the evolutionary thinking upon which it is based is not only inaccurate, it legitimates the capitalist world-system and conceals its exploitative nature. it is also euocentric.

once you know that, you do not think it applies to you. so all you learn is that others are over-confident.

linear models are better than experts. so interviews are not good predictors. they are good for predicting future interview performance. e.g kellog's MBA started interviews. students became taller and prettier. and got higher salaries after MBA.

simple linear (improper) models do very well. better than committees.

so, why will we not change? why are we skeptical.

'broken leg' argument. robyn dawes. you recruit a player to a team without seeing them and they have a broken leg. this also can be introduced to the model. how attractive is a firm that uses a model. you are weird if you do not. feel-good, loyalty, advantage in competitive scenario, but not for selection. model predicts cultural compatibility? lacks collegiality. a lunch interview is a good predictor of a future lunches.

it is tough to get others to agree and to use the model. do you need variables from experts? experts want control.

if the model is different than intuition, may want to ask what would the model have to look like?

what decisions would you let a model make.

so, a model may be a good alphabet for group decisions.

Cain says: trust your gut when

• it may pick on something that is not in the data - something that makes sense. is there a story why it may make sense?
• for simple decisions
• when there is no time
• when deciding about your gut, especially if there is 'gut data' over time

how to do well on interviews:

claim: memory is recreated from start, end, and extremes. with huge recentcy effect

• firm handshake
• first impressions
• a few high points
• minimum low points
• great ending

on recentcy. if the end is not as bad as the previous experience, you are more likely to proceed than if the last experience is not so bad but without comparison.